Lawrence Freedman
Just before the invasion began, Putin took part in an annual drill involving Russian missiles. Then, when he announced the “special operation” on 24 February, he remarked that “whoever tries to hinder us” will face “consequences that you have never faced in your history”. Three days later he publicly ordered his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, “to transfer the army’s deterrence forces to a special mode of combat duty”. This did not amount to much in practice: the point was to underline a deterrence threat.
The threat was directed towards Nato countries that might have been thinking about directly intervening to support Ukraine. Threats of this type were made in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea. Back then Putin stated that other countries “should understand it’s best not to mess with us”, adding that “Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers”. At that time, as now, Russian media broadcast regular, lurid descriptions of the terrible things Russia would do to any countries that interfered, neglecting to mention what these countries could do in return. The aim was to present Russia as a country with unlimited power, with the will to use it, and with little sense of proportion, so that any minor provocation could result in terror raining down on the perpetrator.
Strip away the absurd rhetoric and braggadocio and it is clear the focus remains on deterring Nato countries, now including the provision of Ukraine with the means to mount deep strikes against Russian territory. As another recent example, the Russian TV presenter Olga Skabeyeva, who regularly describes the current conflict as the Third World War, made specific threats with regard to the potential delivery of the long-range (300-kilometre) Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missile from the US to Ukraine. “Russia has every right to defend itself. That’s to say, to strike Poland or the US’s Ramstein base in Germany, for example.” The current narrative in Moscow is that the troubles they now face are not because of the exertions of the Ukrainians but because they are backed by the best Western weapons. It is a familiar refrain that they are at war with Nato.
These threats have not been ignored by Nato. It was determined right at the start that there would be no direct intervention by member states. That was behind their refusal to agree to Kyiv’s pleas to set up a no-fly zone to push Russian aircraft from the skies over Ukraine. Biden has been clear that he does not want to give Putin an excuse to escalate, which is one reason why he has been reluctant to authorise the ATACMS deployment. Another reason is that the Pentagon is unconvinced that this would make a large difference to Ukraine’s military performance.
Yet while the nuclear threats are directed against Nato countries rather than Ukraine, the latter is the reason Russia is in trouble. Ukraine also seems to offer the most troubling scenario. Colin H Kahl, the under secretary of defense for policy, said in a statement to the New York Times over the weekend that “Ukraine’s success on the battlefield could cause Russia to feel backed into a corner, and that is something we must remain mindful of”. This point was reinforced by the deputy director of the CIA, David Cohen, urging not to “underestimate Putin’s adherence to his original objective, which was to control Ukraine” or “his risk appetite”.
But Russia is not truly backed into a corner. At the moment there is no existential threat to the Russian state, even if one might be developing with respect to Putin’s personal position. The way to get out of any corner is to cross the border back home. And if the president wants to escalate he has other options. To quote the New York Times again: “More indiscriminate bombardment of Ukrainian cities, a campaign to kill senior Ukrainian leaders, or an attack on supply hubs outside Ukraine – located in Nato countries like Poland and Romania – that are channelling extraordinary quantities of arms, ammunition and military equipment into the country.”
More might be done against critical infrastructure or Ukrainian government buildings.
Yet these are all things Putin has either done already to a certain degree, tried and failed to do, or simply not attempted because they are too difficult. If Russia could have interrupted the weapon supply lines coming through Ukraine’s western borders, it would have made no sense to wait: Russia has not been capable of doing this. Attacking Poland or Romania would invoke Nato’s Article 5, which considers an attack on one member to be an attack on all. Russian leaders are well aware of this because they refer to it often. This is how nuclear deterrence works in the other direction and keeps the conflict contained.
There is a view that Russian forces might hold on until the winter and recreate the sense of stalemate and mutual attrition that occurred over the summer when the battle for Luhansk was under way. Another view is that Russia’s army is in a shambolic state and will be unable to regain a grip on the situation. Should the Ukrainians start moving against the Russian position in the Donbas region, or capture the large number of Russian troops defending territory around Kherson and cut off from new supplies, then Putin would face calamity. In the face of such calamity would nuclear weapon use be of any value?
Another issue was whether the bomb would work. It would be embarrassing to encourage the Japanese to watch and then for the spectacle to turn out to be a dud. It is possible that this could be a non-trivial consideration in any Russian deliberations: while missiles are regularly tested this is not the case with their warheads. The last such test under the Soviet Union was during the early period of the Cold War. As we have seen with other weapons that have been brought out of storage, they have not always been well maintained and do not necessarily work as advertised.
There are decades where you fuck around and days where you find out
