Another “opera”: we are approaching the point of no return, where Israel will have no choice but to attack Iran. It's time to think about all the scenarios, Dr. Gabi Avital in a special article for Now 14 magazine readers
Why should Israel not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons? The day a true point of no return occurs, where the bomb will be almost ready to be mounted on the head of the Shihab-3 missile, a nuclear arms race will begin in the Middle East. And it won't stop there: Iran's face is already towards South America.
The allies of the west in the Persian Gulf will surrender to Iran. The economic results will be devastating for the United States and the free world. Iran will be the head of the Arab arrow and will be crowned the queen of the Muslim world rushing towards the West with a nuclear weapon.
Iran will not rush to use the bomb against Israel. It is enough to cause Israel to wake up, God forbid, by waving a bomb without firing it. The Jews of the country will live in constant anxiety. Those who are given the opportunity will leave the country. The rest will face the demise of the Israeli economy. Investors will withdraw their money and energy, and there will be a widespread slowdown in all arenas. The security dependence in the United States will increase to the point that starting a tank engine will require the US administration’s approval.
The IDF will rise
About two weeks after the outbreak of the Gulf War, at the end of 1990, literary critic Prof. Dan Miron wrote: "If there is an IDF, it make itself known and rise." This is a statement from the depths of Jewish reason that requires what Mordecai says to Queen Esther: "If at such a time you have reached the kingdom".
If all hopes for any peaceful resolution with the Iranians is lost, the State of Israel would have to attack Iran. The IDF has three descriptors of military action: an aerial attack by aircraft equipped with smart bombs; an attack with surface-to-surface missiles armed with conventional and nuclear warheads, which according to all available information are in Israel's hands; an attack by sea. If I may, I could add a fourth descriptor : A combination of the three. The Jew's gun is heavily loaded.
Here one must try and examine the chances of success of the attack. The basis for the comparison is the attack on the reactor in Iraq: then there was one prominent target above ground; Today there are at least three targets deep in the ground. Back then the range was 1,100 km; today the distance is double. Back then they flew to the last drop of fuel; today you have to refuel in the air. Back then there were iron bombs; today there are bombs placed and even penetrating several meters of concrete layers. Back then the Iraqi anti-aircraft system fell asleep and was surprised.
Today S-300 anti-aircraft and anti-missile surface-to-air missiles create an almost impenetrable defense belt. At that time, sixteen fighter planes and dozens of rescue, refueling, communication and warning planes participated in the operation; Today, at least a hundred fighter planes will be required, and about that number of escort, rescue, refueling, communication and electronic warfare planes. Back then all planes returned in peace; Today, in a reasonable estimate, damage to a double-digit number of planes and pilots must be taken into account.
An Iranian response could be in the form of a hundred surface-to-surface missiles and possible damage similar to the first Gulf War. The arrow missiles can knock down a good number of them. Let us recall here that the citizens of Great Britain bravely withstood many hundreds of German missiles. The IDF has the ability to crush all infrastructure and aid facilities in both Lebanon and Syria within a few hours.
And even if we go by the pessimistic scenarios, it is possible to contrast a difficult scenario with a terrible scenario: on the one side , in the most extreme case, the price of several hundred civilians and soldiers, twenty fighter planes with their pilots and war damage of several weeks.
On the other side, a potential killing of twenty-five thousand Jews and similar number injured by heat and radiation. Sometimes you have to decide between tolerable pain and a constant nightmare.
After many years of the ambiguity of the Israeli nuclear power, it is ok to take the bull by its horns and take Israel out of the tangle of flaccidity and fear. The tests of history show that in the long run Israel wins.
The attack tonight (between Friday and Saturday) in the Homs region of northwestern Syria was particularly unusual, both in terms of scope and in terms of the targets that were attacked. According to foreign publications, the targets that were the focus of the bombardments attributed to Israel are logistics infrastructures used by Hezbollah to transfer ammunition from Syria to Lebanon - a few days before a delivery to the organization was supposed to take place through them.
Among other things, the hangars that are used to store weapons before they are sent to Lebanese territory and dozens of trucks that are used by Hezbollah for the transfer itself were attacked. The attempt was to produce a large and extensive attack, to hit as many targets as possible.
The purpose of the move was not to damage the infrastructure of the Syrian army or the Assad regime, but to focus on the logistical system and capabilities of Hezbollah in Lebanon. That is, sabotaging a part of the weapons transfer chain - which starts the moment the planes land in Iran until the IDF crosses the border into Lebanon.
Tonight's attack is also unique because it took place when Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahiyan was in Lebanon and met with Nasrallah there. During his visit, he also conducted a tour of Lebanon's southern border, where he defiantly observed Israel - which indicates the tightening of cooperation and coordination between Iran and Hezbollah recently. In statements to the press he said: "If in Lebanon I do not meet with some of the leaders of the Palestinian resistance, my visit has no meaning."
Around 1:00 the official Syrian news agency SANA reported an attack on targets in the Homs area, and attributed the attack to Israel. In response, the air defense systems were activated, and managed to shoot down some of the missiles that were launched.
Syria: Official Syrian sources report that Israeli planes attacked targets in the city of Homs last night
According to the Syrian state-owned news channel, Israeli planes attacked at around 5 a.m. from northern Lebanon, air defense systems intercepting several Israeli missiles, but three civilians were injured, a gas station caught fire, and several tankers and trucks were damaged.
Syrian opposition sources noted that the gas station that caught fire belonged to a senior Iranian militia member. Additionally, they claim that Israeli planes attacked weapons and ammunition depots near the al-Dabaa airport, air defense batteries in Shinshar, and the military base belonging to the "al-Hajana" battalion in Homs. Surprisingly, IRGC channels confirmed that "weapons depots were attacked" in Homs.
These last couple of weeks, at least six Iranian cargo planes have landed in Syria, mostly in the Aleppo and Homs areas. Attached is a video of one of the attacks in Homs last night.
Οι ισραηλινοί συνεχίζουν ασταμάτητα δυο μέρες τώρα να χτυπάνε ηγετικά πρόσωπα των παλαιστινίων, τα σπίτια τους κλπ. Προς το παρόν χωρίς αποτέλεσμα οι συζητήσεις για εκεχειρία
student έγραψε: 12 Μάιος 2023, 18:40
Οι ισραηλινοί συνεχίζουν ασταμάτητα δυο μέρες τώρα να χτυπάνε ηγετικά πρόσωπα των παλαιστινίων, τα σπίτια τους κλπ. Προς το παρόν χωρίς αποτέλεσμα οι συζητήσεις για εκεχειρία
Σωστό αυτό με τα ηγετικά στελέχη από το να την πληρώνει ο κοσμάκης.
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