Rybar Force
@rybar_force




On the use of NATO air bases by Ukrainian F-16s
Yesterday it became known that some F-16 fighter jets, which will be transferred to the AFU, will be based not on the Ukrainian territory, but on the airbases of the North Atlantic Alliance to avoid strikes against them.

Such a scenario was expected. Firstly, the fighter jets are already in Romania (specifically at the Fetesti base), where the pilots are being trained, so the AFU pilots are familiar with airbases and flight routes.
▪ Secondly, test flights from Romania in the direction of Odesa region have already been made and more than once. F-16s flew over Tulcea, flew to Vylkove and made several circles over Snake Island.
▪ Thirdly, the fighters will be safer on the territory of NATO countries. A strike on Alliance airfields would lead to total escalation, which is why it was officially announced that NATO infrastructure would be used by fighter jets to strike Russia.

In a chess game, this situation would be called a fork. On the one hand it is possible to hit air bases with uncertain effectiveness (the strikes on the distant AFU airfields proved it, and NATO has on duty airborne radar planes, which makes it easier to reveal the launch of missiles in advance).
The other option is to leave it as it is (after all, the training is already underway) and work on the destruction of aircraft by other means. But this will demonstrate weakness in the eyes of the West, which is what the Alliance is counting on in the framework of increasing the degree of escalation.

It is worth adding that only a part of fighter jets will enjoy such privileges. We can assume that they will be carrying missiles such as JASSM (cruise missiles, up to 370 km) or AIM-120D air-to-air missiles with a combat radius of up to 180 km.

With high probability they will be located in Romania at Fetesti and Campia Turzii, from where they can fly for strikes with intermediate landings at airfields in the Western part of Ukraine or directly through Moldova and Odesa region.
▪ Slovakia looks unlikely due to the presence of more convenient Romania and bases in Uzhgorod and Ivano-Frankivsk. Polish participation in this process is also not excluded, given the proximity of airfields in Rzeszów and Minsk-Mazowiecki.
The latter, by the way, hosts a Polish squadron of F-16s, so the necessary infrastructure for servicing fighters is available there. And they can fly with a landing at an airfield in Lutsk or Ozerne.
▪ Similar actions were periodically performed by Su-24M bombers before launching Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles. They took off from Starokostiantyniv without ammunition, landed somewhere in Myrhorod, where they were manned, and after the launch they went back with refueling at one of the airfields in Western Ukraine.
That is, the tactics of using cruise missile carriers are quite well coordinated, so it will not be difficult to adjust it a little for the use of aviation from, say, Romania or Poland. But it will complicate the work of our aviation and air defense, and the issue of countermeasures should be properly thought over.
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/ ... 0611633586