!!! DEVELOPMENT MODE !!!
Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Κανόνες Δ. Συζήτησης
Οι πληροφορίες, οι συμβουλές και γενικότερα το υλικό που δημοσιεύεται σε αυτή την ενότητα έχουν αποκλειστικά ενημερωτικό χαρακτήρα και εκφράζουν τις προσωπικές απόψεις των αρχικών συγγραφέων στα πλαίσια της δημόσιας συζήτησης. Σε καμία περίπτωση δεν αποτελούν επιστημονική ιατρική πληροφόρηση. Το Phorum.com.gr δεν παρέχει ιατρικές συμβουλές, ούτε φέρει ευθύνη για το υλικό που δημοσιεύεται εδώ ή σε άλλη ενότητα της κοινότητας, ή μεταφέρεται ως πληροφορία με τη χρήση προσωπικών μηνυμάτων, e-mail και άλλων τρόπων. Δεν φέρουμε καμία απολύτως ευθύνη για οποιαδήποτε τυχόν σωματική / ψυχική βλάβη λόγω εσφαλμένης πληροφόρησης. Συστήνουμε πάντοτε να συμβουλεύεστε γιατρό για θέματα υγείας.
Η ανάγνωση ή/και η συμμετοχή σας στην παρούσα ενότητα συνεπάγεται ότι συμφωνείτε και αποδέχεστε ανεπιφύλακτα τους παραπάνω όρους.
Οι πληροφορίες, οι συμβουλές και γενικότερα το υλικό που δημοσιεύεται σε αυτή την ενότητα έχουν αποκλειστικά ενημερωτικό χαρακτήρα και εκφράζουν τις προσωπικές απόψεις των αρχικών συγγραφέων στα πλαίσια της δημόσιας συζήτησης. Σε καμία περίπτωση δεν αποτελούν επιστημονική ιατρική πληροφόρηση. Το Phorum.com.gr δεν παρέχει ιατρικές συμβουλές, ούτε φέρει ευθύνη για το υλικό που δημοσιεύεται εδώ ή σε άλλη ενότητα της κοινότητας, ή μεταφέρεται ως πληροφορία με τη χρήση προσωπικών μηνυμάτων, e-mail και άλλων τρόπων. Δεν φέρουμε καμία απολύτως ευθύνη για οποιαδήποτε τυχόν σωματική / ψυχική βλάβη λόγω εσφαλμένης πληροφόρησης. Συστήνουμε πάντοτε να συμβουλεύεστε γιατρό για θέματα υγείας.
Η ανάγνωση ή/και η συμμετοχή σας στην παρούσα ενότητα συνεπάγεται ότι συμφωνείτε και αποδέχεστε ανεπιφύλακτα τους παραπάνω όρους.
- hellegennes
- Δημοσιεύσεις: 45100
- Εγγραφή: 01 Απρ 2018, 00:17
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Το ίδιο λέμε. Σιγά μην έκαναν εμβόλιο άγνωστης αποτελεσματικότητας (στην καλύτερη θα είναι 40%).
Ξημέρωσε.
Α, τι ωραία που είναι!
Ήρθε η ώρα να κοιμηθώ.
Κι αν είμαι τυχερός,
θα με ξυπνήσουν μια Δευτέρα παρουσία κατά την θρησκεία.
Μα δεν ξέρω αν και τότε να σηκωθώ θελήσω.
Α, τι ωραία που είναι!
Ήρθε η ώρα να κοιμηθώ.
Κι αν είμαι τυχερός,
θα με ξυπνήσουν μια Δευτέρα παρουσία κατά την θρησκεία.
Μα δεν ξέρω αν και τότε να σηκωθώ θελήσω.
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... start.htmlCoronavirus survivors' plasma may be useless for treating people with COVID-19 if it isn't donated soon enough because antibodies fade just three months after symptoms start, study finds
η προσοχη μας στο Καστελοριζο
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
αλλα το καθαρμα ο Τζεημς δεν επεστρεψε ποτε τα τηλεφωνηματα μου την επομενη μερα και εκτοτε δεν τον ξαναειδα. Δεν ξερω αν ειναι καν αυτο το ονομα του!EKPLIKTIKOS έγραψε: 26 Σεπ 2020, 17:08 εγω ήμουν Αγγλια, είχα βγει για φαγητο κανονικα,..... κ πηγα κατευθείαν στο κρεβάτι πιστεύοντας οτι εχω κατι πολυ σοβαρο.
Κυριάκος ο Χρυσογέννητος, του Οίκου των Μητσοτακιδών, Πρώτος του Ονόματός του, Κύριος των Κρητών και των Πρώτων Ελλήνων, Προστάτης της Ελλάδος, Μπαμπάς της Δρακογενιάς, ο Κούλης του Οίνοπα Πόντου, ο Ατσαλάκωτος, ο Απελευθερωτής από τα Δεσμά των Μνημονίων.
- ΜπλεΜπουμπυς
- Δημοσιεύσεις: 20369
- Εγγραφή: 17 Μάιος 2018, 07:28
- Τοποθεσία: Πανταχου παρων
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
AΠΟΧΑΙΡΕΤΑ και το εμβόλιο της Johnson and Johnson που σταμάτησε ανεστειλε τις δοκιμες στην τρίτη φάση λόγω παρενεργειών.
Mόνο ελπιδα ....το Ρώσικο.
Δεν πιστευω οι φωστηρες της κυβερνησης να εχουν αγορασει μονο απο την Johnson & Johnson,AstraZeneca Plc που τα αποχαιρεταμε μαλλον;
H λογικη λεει να εχουν κρατησει καβατζες και για το ρωσικο.
Εκτος εαν ειναι τιποτα βλαμμενοι.
Mόνο ελπιδα ....το Ρώσικο.
Δεν πιστευω οι φωστηρες της κυβερνησης να εχουν αγορασει μονο απο την Johnson & Johnson,AstraZeneca Plc που τα αποχαιρεταμε μαλλον;
H λογικη λεει να εχουν κρατησει καβατζες και για το ρωσικο.
Εκτος εαν ειναι τιποτα βλαμμενοι.
Οι ΗΠΑ θα πολεμανε την Ρωσια μεχρι τον ΤΕΛΕΥΤΑΙΟ Ουκρανο !
- unholydiver
- Δημοσιεύσεις: 389
- Εγγραφή: 01 Σεπ 2020, 21:31
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Από https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/
A Sars-Cov2 vaccine – don’t hold your breath
10th October 2020
[But concern may be in order]
I suppose most people believe the trials on vaccines for COVID19 will be looking to demonstrate that they reduce the risk of infection, death, or serious illness – or suchlike.
Also, you may have heard that several vaccines could be ready for use early next year 2021. Maybe even later this year.
As Dilbert may retort: Hahahahahahahahahahahaha! Oh, let me pause and wipe away my tears of mirth.
Really. Think about it. Then think a bit more…
AstraZeneca (AZ) is thought to be leading the pack with their vaccine AZD1222. Their major clinical trial will recruit 30,000 participants – which is good. You can find the trial description on Clinicaltrials.gov. It goes by the snappy title ‘Phase III Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of AZD1222 for the Prevention of COVID-19 in Adults.’ 1
You may be interested in the start and end date of this AZ trial:
Estimated Study Start Date: August 17, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date*: December 2, 2020
Estimated Study Completion Date: October 5, 2022
*date when all volunteers have been recruited onto the trial.
As you can see, even if all goes to plan, their study will not be completed until two years from now. Then they will have to analyse the data and suchlike, which will take a couple of months, even as a rush job. Which means they are unlikely to have everything sorted before early 2023.
For those who were claiming, a few months ago, that a vaccine would be ready by September this year i.e. a month ago, this would be stretching the word ‘ready’ far beyond its natural boundaries.
As for studying deaths from COVID19, this trial will not be looking at anything as tricky as that. Preventing deaths from COVID19 is not an end-point they are aiming for.
Below I have listed the primary end-points for study NCT04516746. By primary end-points, I mean those outcomes that will be used to determine if the trial has been a success or failure.
Sorry, jargon alert, and boring but also necessary, I feel, just so you know I am not making this stuff up. My comments in brackets [ ].
PRIMARY END-POINTS OF AZ STUDY
1: To estimate the efficacy of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to placebo for the prevention of COVID-19 in adults ≥ 18 years of age [Time Frame: 1 year]
A binary response, whereby a participant is defined as a COVID-19 case if their first case of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive symptomatic illness occurs ≥ 15 days post second dose of study intervention. Otherwise, a participant is not defined as a COVID-19 case.
[You may note that a positive SARS-Cov-2 RT-PCR test is not sufficient to define someone as having been infected with the virus – they must also have symptoms.]
2: To assess the safety and tolerability of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to placebo in adults ≥ 18 years of age [ Time Frame: a: 28 days post each dose of study Intervention. / b: from Day 1 post-treatment through Day 730.]
a: Incidence of adverse events.
b: Incidence of serious adverse events, medically attended adverse events, and adverse events of special interest.
3: To assess the reactogenicity* of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to placebo in adults ≥ 18 years of age (Substudy only) [ Time Frame: 7 days post each dose of study intervention.]
Incidence of local and systemic solicited adverse events.
*In vaccine clinical trials, the term reactogenicity refers to the property of a vaccine of being able to produce common, “expected” adverse reactions, especially excessive immunological responses and associated signs and symptoms, including fever and sore arm at injection site.
At this point I feel the need to point out that preventing deaths from COVID19 is not even a secondary end-point for this trial either. So, whatever else we will find out, we are not going to know if AZD1222 saves any lives. Or, to be technical, the trial is not sufficiently ‘powered’ to reach statistical significance for overall mortality.
Anyway, getting back to the timelines, you may now be thinking, how on earth are they planning to launch a vaccine next year, if they are not going to complete their key clinical trial until October 2022? Do they have a time machine?
Well, it goes like this.
Clinical trials – before a drug is approved – normally go through three clinical phases.
Phase I: Evaluate safety, determine safe dosage, identify side effects (in a small group of human volunteers, maybe twenty or thirty)
Phase II: Test effectiveness, further evaluate safety (maybe a couple of hundred volunteers).
Phase III: Confirm effectiveness, monitor side-effects, compare to other treatments (up to tens of thousands of volunteers).
Following completion of the Phase III trial, the data are sent to the regulatory authorities, who will then determine if the ‘drug’ is both safe and effective. Or at least safe and effective enough to recommend approval.
The AZ trial I have been talking about up to now, is a phase III trial, with 30,000 participants.
However, clearly, with SARS-Cov-2 vaccines, they are not going to (and cannot) wait for Phase III trials to complete. Instead, they are planning to launch directly after (what would normally be called phase II trials) to finish.
Regarding this, I was sent an e-mail by a friend regarding these phase II trials, and what they are trying to achieve. The e-mail is summary of an article by William A Haseltine who writes this, of himself.
‘For nearly two decades, [William A. Haseltine] was a professor at Harvard Medical School and Harvard School of Public Health where I founded two academic research departments, the Division of Biochemical Pharmacology and the Division of Human Retrovirology. I am perhaps most well-known for my work on cancer, HIV/AIDS, and genomics.’
You can look him up on Wikipedia if you like.2 Basically, it sounds like he knows what he is talking about, with regard to science, viruses and suchlike. Although when it comes to research on vaccines for COVID19 he seems to have spotted commercial reality for the first time in his life.
Here was the e-mail, sent to me:
Here is an interesting article about the COVID-19 vaccine trials written by William A. Haseltine, who was a professor at Harvard Medical School and Harvard School of Public Health, and who founded two academic research departments, the Division of Biochemical Pharmacology and the Division of Human Retrovirology.
Here are the two most important points he makes, which summarizes what he says in his article, are:
“These [vaccine] protocols do not emphasize the most important ramifications of COVID-19 that people are most interested in preventing: overall infection, hospitalization, and death.”
[The COVID-19 vaccine trials are only looking to see if these vaccines reduce symptoms that may be as mild as cough and headache. They are NOT requiring that the vaccines reduce the risk of infection, hospitalization or death.]
“It boggles the mind and defies common sense that the National Institute of Health, the Center for Disease Control, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, and the rest would consider the approval of a vaccine that would be distributed to hundreds of millions on such slender threads of success.”
He also notes how few people there are in each of these studies for their interim analysis, which he says the companies will probably use to try and get Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA:
“For Moderna, the interim analysis includes giving the vaccine to only 53 people.”
“For Johnson & Johnson, their interim analysis includes [only] 77 vaccine recipients “
“For AstraZeneca, their interim analysis includes [only] 50 vaccine recipients”
“For Pfizer, their interim analysis includes only 32 people getting the vaccine.”
“These companies likely intend to apply for an emergency use authorization (EUA)
The full article was published in Forbes magazine, and can be seen there 3 .
In super-short form, the current plan is these vaccines will be launched after giving them to around fifty people – each. At which point we will have no idea if they prevent infection, hospitalisation, or death. In addition, we will not really know if they are safe, as the numbers involved are simply too small – and the timelines too short.
I hope you can now see my scepticism earlier this year, when people were claiming a vaccine could be made available six months after the start of the outbreak. I was aware – as is everyone else who knows how clinical trials are done – that this simply cannot be done. Or to be more accurate, the only way to do it is by cutting some essentially corners. The corners called ‘safety’, and ‘efficacy’.
Yes, I fully accept these are not normal times, and there is certainly a need for speed. Yes, I also accept that we probably should be willing to accept an increased level of risk to tackle the enormous problems caused by COVID19.
However, for the average person, between the ages of twenty and fifty, the upper range estimate of the risk of dying of COVID19, if you get infected, is 0.0003 = 0.03%, which is 3 in 10,000.4 This figure comes from the CDC in the US, which continues to stick to a higher estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), than almost anyone else.
Their lower level estimated IFR for this age group is around one in 15,000. Either way, these are very low risk levels indeed. Under the age of twenty, the risk is almost incalculably small. So, for the majority of the population, under the age of fifty (realistically under sixty), we really should not be in a mad rush to vaccinate. We need the type evidence for both safety and efficacy that can only be provided by a Phase III trial.
However, I fear that such is the clamour for a vaccine, so desperate the need, we are going to be launching vaccine after vaccine, based on extremely thin evidence indeed. Not only that, it seems that in some countries, whilst reluctantly backing away from suggesting that COVID19 vaccination would be compulsory, are going to make it almost impossible to refuse.
Here is one headline, discussing the ideas being talked about in Australia ‘No overseas travel, and no welfare payments: The way the government will force people to get a COVID-19 jab – even as the PM insists the vaccine will NOT be compulsory.’
Australians could face being banned from travelling overseas for refusing jab
Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said he would ‘not rule out’ strict measures
Echoed prime minister saying he’d make vaccine ‘as mandatory as possible’
Scott Morrison said later on Wednesday he had no power to enforce a vaccine
Mr Hunt said government was not considering making inoculation compulsory
But said authorities would have option of enforcing policies like ‘no jab, no pay’5
As mandatory as possible? Sorry, but mandatory is binary. It is, or it isn’t. As for the concept of compulsory vaccination. According to the Australian Prime Minister compulsory vaccination would mean pinning people to the floor and vaccinating them. However, telling people that they cannot travel, or work, or receive welfare payments, is tantamount to compulsion.
In my opinion, if we had fully tested vaccines, that were known to be both safe and effective, contemplating such actions would still be several steps too far. However, compelling people to get vaccinated, when all we have is Phase II studies to go on, ventures into extremely worrying territory.
We will effectively be compelling people to become participants in a massive medical research trial. It is my understanding that actions such as this would lie directly within the Nuremberg Code.
Point one: The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential.
This means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, overreaching, or other ulterior form of constraint or coercion; and should have sufficient knowledge and comprehension of the elements of the subject matter involved as to enable him to make an understanding and enlightened decision. This latter element requires that before the acceptance of an affirmative decision by the experimental subject there should be made known to him the nature, duration, and purpose of the experiment; the method and means by which it is to be conducted; all inconveniences and hazards reasonably to be expected; and the effects upon his health or person which may possibly come from his participation in the experiment. 6
The Nuremburg Code was written after the Second World War to ensure that nothing like the unethical human experimentation carried out then on prisoners would ever happen again.
If people want to take these vaccines, of their own free will, that is up to them, and they may be right to make that decision.
However, I am deeply concerned that many others will be coerced, one way or another, to be vaccinated against their will.
1: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT ... w=2&rank=1
2; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_A._Haseltine
3: https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... o-succeed/
4: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html
5: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... 9-jab.html
6: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/n ... 1133372006
A Sars-Cov2 vaccine – don’t hold your breath
10th October 2020
[But concern may be in order]
I suppose most people believe the trials on vaccines for COVID19 will be looking to demonstrate that they reduce the risk of infection, death, or serious illness – or suchlike.
Also, you may have heard that several vaccines could be ready for use early next year 2021. Maybe even later this year.
As Dilbert may retort: Hahahahahahahahahahahaha! Oh, let me pause and wipe away my tears of mirth.
Really. Think about it. Then think a bit more…
AstraZeneca (AZ) is thought to be leading the pack with their vaccine AZD1222. Their major clinical trial will recruit 30,000 participants – which is good. You can find the trial description on Clinicaltrials.gov. It goes by the snappy title ‘Phase III Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of AZD1222 for the Prevention of COVID-19 in Adults.’ 1
You may be interested in the start and end date of this AZ trial:
Estimated Study Start Date: August 17, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date*: December 2, 2020
Estimated Study Completion Date: October 5, 2022
*date when all volunteers have been recruited onto the trial.
As you can see, even if all goes to plan, their study will not be completed until two years from now. Then they will have to analyse the data and suchlike, which will take a couple of months, even as a rush job. Which means they are unlikely to have everything sorted before early 2023.
For those who were claiming, a few months ago, that a vaccine would be ready by September this year i.e. a month ago, this would be stretching the word ‘ready’ far beyond its natural boundaries.
As for studying deaths from COVID19, this trial will not be looking at anything as tricky as that. Preventing deaths from COVID19 is not an end-point they are aiming for.
Below I have listed the primary end-points for study NCT04516746. By primary end-points, I mean those outcomes that will be used to determine if the trial has been a success or failure.
Sorry, jargon alert, and boring but also necessary, I feel, just so you know I am not making this stuff up. My comments in brackets [ ].
PRIMARY END-POINTS OF AZ STUDY
1: To estimate the efficacy of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to placebo for the prevention of COVID-19 in adults ≥ 18 years of age [Time Frame: 1 year]
A binary response, whereby a participant is defined as a COVID-19 case if their first case of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive symptomatic illness occurs ≥ 15 days post second dose of study intervention. Otherwise, a participant is not defined as a COVID-19 case.
[You may note that a positive SARS-Cov-2 RT-PCR test is not sufficient to define someone as having been infected with the virus – they must also have symptoms.]
2: To assess the safety and tolerability of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to placebo in adults ≥ 18 years of age [ Time Frame: a: 28 days post each dose of study Intervention. / b: from Day 1 post-treatment through Day 730.]
a: Incidence of adverse events.
b: Incidence of serious adverse events, medically attended adverse events, and adverse events of special interest.
3: To assess the reactogenicity* of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to placebo in adults ≥ 18 years of age (Substudy only) [ Time Frame: 7 days post each dose of study intervention.]
Incidence of local and systemic solicited adverse events.
*In vaccine clinical trials, the term reactogenicity refers to the property of a vaccine of being able to produce common, “expected” adverse reactions, especially excessive immunological responses and associated signs and symptoms, including fever and sore arm at injection site.
At this point I feel the need to point out that preventing deaths from COVID19 is not even a secondary end-point for this trial either. So, whatever else we will find out, we are not going to know if AZD1222 saves any lives. Or, to be technical, the trial is not sufficiently ‘powered’ to reach statistical significance for overall mortality.
Anyway, getting back to the timelines, you may now be thinking, how on earth are they planning to launch a vaccine next year, if they are not going to complete their key clinical trial until October 2022? Do they have a time machine?
Well, it goes like this.
Clinical trials – before a drug is approved – normally go through three clinical phases.
Phase I: Evaluate safety, determine safe dosage, identify side effects (in a small group of human volunteers, maybe twenty or thirty)
Phase II: Test effectiveness, further evaluate safety (maybe a couple of hundred volunteers).
Phase III: Confirm effectiveness, monitor side-effects, compare to other treatments (up to tens of thousands of volunteers).
Following completion of the Phase III trial, the data are sent to the regulatory authorities, who will then determine if the ‘drug’ is both safe and effective. Or at least safe and effective enough to recommend approval.
The AZ trial I have been talking about up to now, is a phase III trial, with 30,000 participants.
However, clearly, with SARS-Cov-2 vaccines, they are not going to (and cannot) wait for Phase III trials to complete. Instead, they are planning to launch directly after (what would normally be called phase II trials) to finish.
Regarding this, I was sent an e-mail by a friend regarding these phase II trials, and what they are trying to achieve. The e-mail is summary of an article by William A Haseltine who writes this, of himself.
‘For nearly two decades, [William A. Haseltine] was a professor at Harvard Medical School and Harvard School of Public Health where I founded two academic research departments, the Division of Biochemical Pharmacology and the Division of Human Retrovirology. I am perhaps most well-known for my work on cancer, HIV/AIDS, and genomics.’
You can look him up on Wikipedia if you like.2 Basically, it sounds like he knows what he is talking about, with regard to science, viruses and suchlike. Although when it comes to research on vaccines for COVID19 he seems to have spotted commercial reality for the first time in his life.
Here was the e-mail, sent to me:
Here is an interesting article about the COVID-19 vaccine trials written by William A. Haseltine, who was a professor at Harvard Medical School and Harvard School of Public Health, and who founded two academic research departments, the Division of Biochemical Pharmacology and the Division of Human Retrovirology.
Here are the two most important points he makes, which summarizes what he says in his article, are:
“These [vaccine] protocols do not emphasize the most important ramifications of COVID-19 that people are most interested in preventing: overall infection, hospitalization, and death.”
[The COVID-19 vaccine trials are only looking to see if these vaccines reduce symptoms that may be as mild as cough and headache. They are NOT requiring that the vaccines reduce the risk of infection, hospitalization or death.]
“It boggles the mind and defies common sense that the National Institute of Health, the Center for Disease Control, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, and the rest would consider the approval of a vaccine that would be distributed to hundreds of millions on such slender threads of success.”
He also notes how few people there are in each of these studies for their interim analysis, which he says the companies will probably use to try and get Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA:
“For Moderna, the interim analysis includes giving the vaccine to only 53 people.”
“For Johnson & Johnson, their interim analysis includes [only] 77 vaccine recipients “
“For AstraZeneca, their interim analysis includes [only] 50 vaccine recipients”
“For Pfizer, their interim analysis includes only 32 people getting the vaccine.”
“These companies likely intend to apply for an emergency use authorization (EUA)
The full article was published in Forbes magazine, and can be seen there 3 .
In super-short form, the current plan is these vaccines will be launched after giving them to around fifty people – each. At which point we will have no idea if they prevent infection, hospitalisation, or death. In addition, we will not really know if they are safe, as the numbers involved are simply too small – and the timelines too short.
I hope you can now see my scepticism earlier this year, when people were claiming a vaccine could be made available six months after the start of the outbreak. I was aware – as is everyone else who knows how clinical trials are done – that this simply cannot be done. Or to be more accurate, the only way to do it is by cutting some essentially corners. The corners called ‘safety’, and ‘efficacy’.
Yes, I fully accept these are not normal times, and there is certainly a need for speed. Yes, I also accept that we probably should be willing to accept an increased level of risk to tackle the enormous problems caused by COVID19.
However, for the average person, between the ages of twenty and fifty, the upper range estimate of the risk of dying of COVID19, if you get infected, is 0.0003 = 0.03%, which is 3 in 10,000.4 This figure comes from the CDC in the US, which continues to stick to a higher estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), than almost anyone else.
Their lower level estimated IFR for this age group is around one in 15,000. Either way, these are very low risk levels indeed. Under the age of twenty, the risk is almost incalculably small. So, for the majority of the population, under the age of fifty (realistically under sixty), we really should not be in a mad rush to vaccinate. We need the type evidence for both safety and efficacy that can only be provided by a Phase III trial.
However, I fear that such is the clamour for a vaccine, so desperate the need, we are going to be launching vaccine after vaccine, based on extremely thin evidence indeed. Not only that, it seems that in some countries, whilst reluctantly backing away from suggesting that COVID19 vaccination would be compulsory, are going to make it almost impossible to refuse.
Here is one headline, discussing the ideas being talked about in Australia ‘No overseas travel, and no welfare payments: The way the government will force people to get a COVID-19 jab – even as the PM insists the vaccine will NOT be compulsory.’
Australians could face being banned from travelling overseas for refusing jab
Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said he would ‘not rule out’ strict measures
Echoed prime minister saying he’d make vaccine ‘as mandatory as possible’
Scott Morrison said later on Wednesday he had no power to enforce a vaccine
Mr Hunt said government was not considering making inoculation compulsory
But said authorities would have option of enforcing policies like ‘no jab, no pay’5
As mandatory as possible? Sorry, but mandatory is binary. It is, or it isn’t. As for the concept of compulsory vaccination. According to the Australian Prime Minister compulsory vaccination would mean pinning people to the floor and vaccinating them. However, telling people that they cannot travel, or work, or receive welfare payments, is tantamount to compulsion.
In my opinion, if we had fully tested vaccines, that were known to be both safe and effective, contemplating such actions would still be several steps too far. However, compelling people to get vaccinated, when all we have is Phase II studies to go on, ventures into extremely worrying territory.
We will effectively be compelling people to become participants in a massive medical research trial. It is my understanding that actions such as this would lie directly within the Nuremberg Code.
Point one: The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential.
This means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, overreaching, or other ulterior form of constraint or coercion; and should have sufficient knowledge and comprehension of the elements of the subject matter involved as to enable him to make an understanding and enlightened decision. This latter element requires that before the acceptance of an affirmative decision by the experimental subject there should be made known to him the nature, duration, and purpose of the experiment; the method and means by which it is to be conducted; all inconveniences and hazards reasonably to be expected; and the effects upon his health or person which may possibly come from his participation in the experiment. 6
The Nuremburg Code was written after the Second World War to ensure that nothing like the unethical human experimentation carried out then on prisoners would ever happen again.
If people want to take these vaccines, of their own free will, that is up to them, and they may be right to make that decision.
However, I am deeply concerned that many others will be coerced, one way or another, to be vaccinated against their will.
1: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT ... w=2&rank=1
2; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_A._Haseltine
3: https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... o-succeed/
4: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html
5: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... 9-jab.html
6: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/n ... 1133372006
Η αστρολογία είναι περισσότερο έγκυρη από τη διατροφική "επιστήμη" 
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Gewponos90
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- Εγγραφή: 17 Φεβ 2020, 16:18
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Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Yochanan έγραψε: 02 Οκτ 2020, 00:30αλλα το καθαρμα ο Τζεημς δεν επεστρεψε ποτε τα τηλεφωνηματα μου την επομενη μερα και εκτοτε δεν τον ξαναειδα. Δεν ξερω αν ειναι καν αυτο το ονομα του!EKPLIKTIKOS έγραψε: 26 Σεπ 2020, 17:08 εγω ήμουν Αγγλια, είχα βγει για φαγητο κανονικα,..... κ πηγα κατευθείαν στο κρεβάτι πιστεύοντας οτι εχω κατι πολυ σοβαρο.
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Gewponos90
- Δημοσιεύσεις: 9848
- Εγγραφή: 17 Φεβ 2020, 16:18
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Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Μπλα μπλα μπλα. Μας γαμησες Βλάχο.. Διάβασε κανένα βιβλίο ιολογιας να στανιαρειςunholydiver έγραψε: 13 Οκτ 2020, 22:39 Από https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/
A Sars-Cov2 vaccine – don’t hold your breath
10th October 2020
[But concern may be in order]
I suppose most people believe the trials on vaccines for COVID19 will be looking to demonstrate that they reduce the risk of infection, death, or serious illness – or suchlike.
Also, you may have heard that several vaccines could be ready for use early next year 2021. Maybe even later this year.
As Dilbert may retort: Hahahahahahahahahahahaha! Oh, let me pause and wipe away my tears of mirth.
Really. Think about it. Then think a bit more…
AstraZeneca (AZ) is thought to be leading the pack with their vaccine AZD1222. Their major clinical trial will recruit 30,000 participants – which is good. You can find the trial description on Clinicaltrials.gov. It goes by the snappy title ‘Phase III Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of AZD1222 for the Prevention of COVID-19 in Adults.’ 1
You may be interested in the start and end date of this AZ trial:
Estimated Study Start Date: August 17, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date*: December 2, 2020
Estimated Study Completion Date: October 5, 2022
*date when all volunteers have been recruited onto the trial.
As you can see, even if all goes to plan, their study will not be completed until two years from now. Then they will have to analyse the data and suchlike, which will take a couple of months, even as a rush job. Which means they are unlikely to have everything sorted before early 2023.
For those who were claiming, a few months ago, that a vaccine would be ready by September this year i.e. a month ago, this would be stretching the word ‘ready’ far beyond its natural boundaries.
As for studying deaths from COVID19, this trial will not be looking at anything as tricky as that. Preventing deaths from COVID19 is not an end-point they are aiming for.
Below I have listed the primary end-points for study NCT04516746. By primary end-points, I mean those outcomes that will be used to determine if the trial has been a success or failure.
Sorry, jargon alert, and boring but also necessary, I feel, just so you know I am not making this stuff up. My comments in brackets [ ].
PRIMARY END-POINTS OF AZ STUDY
1: To estimate the efficacy of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to placebo for the prevention of COVID-19 in adults ≥ 18 years of age [Time Frame: 1 year]
A binary response, whereby a participant is defined as a COVID-19 case if their first case of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive symptomatic illness occurs ≥ 15 days post second dose of study intervention. Otherwise, a participant is not defined as a COVID-19 case.
[You may note that a positive SARS-Cov-2 RT-PCR test is not sufficient to define someone as having been infected with the virus – they must also have symptoms.]
2: To assess the safety and tolerability of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to placebo in adults ≥ 18 years of age [ Time Frame: a: 28 days post each dose of study Intervention. / b: from Day 1 post-treatment through Day 730.]
a: Incidence of adverse events.
b: Incidence of serious adverse events, medically attended adverse events, and adverse events of special interest.
3: To assess the reactogenicity* of 2 IM doses of AZD1222 compared to placebo in adults ≥ 18 years of age (Substudy only) [ Time Frame: 7 days post each dose of study intervention.]
Incidence of local and systemic solicited adverse events.
*In vaccine clinical trials, the term reactogenicity refers to the property of a vaccine of being able to produce common, “expected” adverse reactions, especially excessive immunological responses and associated signs and symptoms, including fever and sore arm at injection site.
At this point I feel the need to point out that preventing deaths from COVID19 is not even a secondary end-point for this trial either. So, whatever else we will find out, we are not going to know if AZD1222 saves any lives. Or, to be technical, the trial is not sufficiently ‘powered’ to reach statistical significance for overall mortality.
Anyway, getting back to the timelines, you may now be thinking, how on earth are they planning to launch a vaccine next year, if they are not going to complete their key clinical trial until October 2022? Do they have a time machine?
Well, it goes like this.
Clinical trials – before a drug is approved – normally go through three clinical phases.
Phase I: Evaluate safety, determine safe dosage, identify side effects (in a small group of human volunteers, maybe twenty or thirty)
Phase II: Test effectiveness, further evaluate safety (maybe a couple of hundred volunteers).
Phase III: Confirm effectiveness, monitor side-effects, compare to other treatments (up to tens of thousands of volunteers).
Following completion of the Phase III trial, the data are sent to the regulatory authorities, who will then determine if the ‘drug’ is both safe and effective. Or at least safe and effective enough to recommend approval.
The AZ trial I have been talking about up to now, is a phase III trial, with 30,000 participants.
However, clearly, with SARS-Cov-2 vaccines, they are not going to (and cannot) wait for Phase III trials to complete. Instead, they are planning to launch directly after (what would normally be called phase II trials) to finish.
Regarding this, I was sent an e-mail by a friend regarding these phase II trials, and what they are trying to achieve. The e-mail is summary of an article by William A Haseltine who writes this, of himself.
‘For nearly two decades, [William A. Haseltine] was a professor at Harvard Medical School and Harvard School of Public Health where I founded two academic research departments, the Division of Biochemical Pharmacology and the Division of Human Retrovirology. I am perhaps most well-known for my work on cancer, HIV/AIDS, and genomics.’
You can look him up on Wikipedia if you like.2 Basically, it sounds like he knows what he is talking about, with regard to science, viruses and suchlike. Although when it comes to research on vaccines for COVID19 he seems to have spotted commercial reality for the first time in his life.
Here was the e-mail, sent to me:
Here is an interesting article about the COVID-19 vaccine trials written by William A. Haseltine, who was a professor at Harvard Medical School and Harvard School of Public Health, and who founded two academic research departments, the Division of Biochemical Pharmacology and the Division of Human Retrovirology.
Here are the two most important points he makes, which summarizes what he says in his article, are:
“These [vaccine] protocols do not emphasize the most important ramifications of COVID-19 that people are most interested in preventing: overall infection, hospitalization, and death.”
[The COVID-19 vaccine trials are only looking to see if these vaccines reduce symptoms that may be as mild as cough and headache. They are NOT requiring that the vaccines reduce the risk of infection, hospitalization or death.]
“It boggles the mind and defies common sense that the National Institute of Health, the Center for Disease Control, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, and the rest would consider the approval of a vaccine that would be distributed to hundreds of millions on such slender threads of success.”
He also notes how few people there are in each of these studies for their interim analysis, which he says the companies will probably use to try and get Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA:
“For Moderna, the interim analysis includes giving the vaccine to only 53 people.”
“For Johnson & Johnson, their interim analysis includes [only] 77 vaccine recipients “
“For AstraZeneca, their interim analysis includes [only] 50 vaccine recipients”
“For Pfizer, their interim analysis includes only 32 people getting the vaccine.”
“These companies likely intend to apply for an emergency use authorization (EUA)
The full article was published in Forbes magazine, and can be seen there 3 .
In super-short form, the current plan is these vaccines will be launched after giving them to around fifty people – each. At which point we will have no idea if they prevent infection, hospitalisation, or death. In addition, we will not really know if they are safe, as the numbers involved are simply too small – and the timelines too short.
I hope you can now see my scepticism earlier this year, when people were claiming a vaccine could be made available six months after the start of the outbreak. I was aware – as is everyone else who knows how clinical trials are done – that this simply cannot be done. Or to be more accurate, the only way to do it is by cutting some essentially corners. The corners called ‘safety’, and ‘efficacy’.
Yes, I fully accept these are not normal times, and there is certainly a need for speed. Yes, I also accept that we probably should be willing to accept an increased level of risk to tackle the enormous problems caused by COVID19.
However, for the average person, between the ages of twenty and fifty, the upper range estimate of the risk of dying of COVID19, if you get infected, is 0.0003 = 0.03%, which is 3 in 10,000.4 This figure comes from the CDC in the US, which continues to stick to a higher estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), than almost anyone else.
Their lower level estimated IFR for this age group is around one in 15,000. Either way, these are very low risk levels indeed. Under the age of twenty, the risk is almost incalculably small. So, for the majority of the population, under the age of fifty (realistically under sixty), we really should not be in a mad rush to vaccinate. We need the type evidence for both safety and efficacy that can only be provided by a Phase III trial.
However, I fear that such is the clamour for a vaccine, so desperate the need, we are going to be launching vaccine after vaccine, based on extremely thin evidence indeed. Not only that, it seems that in some countries, whilst reluctantly backing away from suggesting that COVID19 vaccination would be compulsory, are going to make it almost impossible to refuse.
Here is one headline, discussing the ideas being talked about in Australia ‘No overseas travel, and no welfare payments: The way the government will force people to get a COVID-19 jab – even as the PM insists the vaccine will NOT be compulsory.’
Australians could face being banned from travelling overseas for refusing jab
Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said he would ‘not rule out’ strict measures
Echoed prime minister saying he’d make vaccine ‘as mandatory as possible’
Scott Morrison said later on Wednesday he had no power to enforce a vaccine
Mr Hunt said government was not considering making inoculation compulsory
But said authorities would have option of enforcing policies like ‘no jab, no pay’5
As mandatory as possible? Sorry, but mandatory is binary. It is, or it isn’t. As for the concept of compulsory vaccination. According to the Australian Prime Minister compulsory vaccination would mean pinning people to the floor and vaccinating them. However, telling people that they cannot travel, or work, or receive welfare payments, is tantamount to compulsion.
In my opinion, if we had fully tested vaccines, that were known to be both safe and effective, contemplating such actions would still be several steps too far. However, compelling people to get vaccinated, when all we have is Phase II studies to go on, ventures into extremely worrying territory.
We will effectively be compelling people to become participants in a massive medical research trial. It is my understanding that actions such as this would lie directly within the Nuremberg Code.
Point one: The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential.
This means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, overreaching, or other ulterior form of constraint or coercion; and should have sufficient knowledge and comprehension of the elements of the subject matter involved as to enable him to make an understanding and enlightened decision. This latter element requires that before the acceptance of an affirmative decision by the experimental subject there should be made known to him the nature, duration, and purpose of the experiment; the method and means by which it is to be conducted; all inconveniences and hazards reasonably to be expected; and the effects upon his health or person which may possibly come from his participation in the experiment. 6
The Nuremburg Code was written after the Second World War to ensure that nothing like the unethical human experimentation carried out then on prisoners would ever happen again.
If people want to take these vaccines, of their own free will, that is up to them, and they may be right to make that decision.
However, I am deeply concerned that many others will be coerced, one way or another, to be vaccinated against their will.
1: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT ... w=2&rank=1
2; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_A._Haseltine
3: https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... o-succeed/
4: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html
5: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... 9-jab.html
6: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/n ... 1133372006
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- unholydiver
- Δημοσιεύσεις: 389
- Εγγραφή: 01 Σεπ 2020, 21:31
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Έχεις να προτείνεις κάτι καλό? Κατά προτίμηση στα αγγλικάGewponos90 έγραψε: 13 Οκτ 2020, 22:42 Μπλα μπλα μπλα. Μας γαμησες Βλάχο.. Διάβασε κανένα βιβλίο ιολογιας να στανιαρεις
Η αστρολογία είναι περισσότερο έγκυρη από τη διατροφική "επιστήμη" 
- Green Dragon
- Δημοσιεύσεις: 24828
- Εγγραφή: 17 Απρ 2020, 12:02
- Phorum.gr user: Green Dragon
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Αν είναι να βγει το 2023 το εμβόλιο, σύμφωνα με το παραπάνω σεντόνι, πάμε φουλ Σουηδία και όποιος ζήσει. Δεν θα κάτσω απομονωμένος και κλειδαμπαρωμένος για τα 3 επόμενα χρόνια.
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Σε ποια χωρα εισαι και σε εχουν κλειδαμπαρωσει;
Philip Mortimer έγραψε: 14 Μαρ 2023, 22:40 Όσον αφορά το 2019 προσωπικά ψήφισα τον Μητσοτάκη γιατί πίστεψα στο όραμα μη πολιτικά χρωματισμένου εκσυγχρονισμού που παρουσίασε.
- unholydiver
- Δημοσιεύσεις: 389
- Εγγραφή: 01 Σεπ 2020, 21:31
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Το εμβόλιο δεν θα βγει το 2023, θα βγει νωρίτερα έχοντας ολοκληρώσει μόνο phase 2 έρευνες (αν είναι τόσο μαλάκες), πραγματοποιώντας ουσιαστικά την έρευνα (μερικής) ασφάλειας πάνω στον γενικό πληθυσμό!Green Dragon έγραψε: 14 Οκτ 2020, 17:38 Αν είναι να βγει το 2023 το εμβόλιο, σύμφωνα με το παραπάνω σεντόνι, πάμε φουλ Σουηδία και όποιος ζήσει. Δεν θα κάτσω απομονωμένος και κλειδαμπαρωμένος για τα 3 επόμενα χρόνια.
Επίσης στην έρευνα που θαααααααα κάνουν, επιτυχία θα θεωρείται αν αναπτύξαμε αντισώματα και όχι αν έχουμε ηπιότερα συμπτώματα και λίγοτερους θανάτους. Για τα ίδια αντισώματα μιλάμε φυσικά που αναπτύσσουν όσοι έχουν περάσει τον sar-cov2 και μας έχουνε ζαλίσει τα παπάρια οι "ειδικοί" τα μμε και οι ΑΨΕΚΑΣΤΟΙ ότι δεν ξέρουμε αν μας παρέχουν ανοσία ή όχι
Η αστρολογία είναι περισσότερο έγκυρη από τη διατροφική "επιστήμη" 
- Green Dragon
- Δημοσιεύσεις: 24828
- Εγγραφή: 17 Απρ 2020, 12:02
- Phorum.gr user: Green Dragon
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Μόνος μου το επέλεξα, βγαίνω σχεδόν αποκλειστικά για δουλειά. Αλλά αυτό έχει ένα όριο, δεν μπορεί να συνεχιστεί για χρόνια χωρίς να κλατάρω ψυχολογικά.
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Μηπως ηθελε να πεις "πατε φουλ Σουηδια και οταν τελειωσετε θα βγω και εγω";Green Dragon έγραψε: 14 Οκτ 2020, 21:53Μόνος μου το επέλεξα, βγαίνω σχεδόν αποκλειστικά για δουλειά. Αλλά αυτό έχει ένα όριο, δεν μπορεί να συνεχιστεί για χρόνια χωρίς να κλατάρω ψυχολογικά.
Philip Mortimer έγραψε: 14 Μαρ 2023, 22:40 Όσον αφορά το 2019 προσωπικά ψήφισα τον Μητσοτάκη γιατί πίστεψα στο όραμα μη πολιτικά χρωματισμένου εκσυγχρονισμού που παρουσίασε.
- Green Dragon
- Δημοσιεύσεις: 24828
- Εγγραφή: 17 Απρ 2020, 12:02
- Phorum.gr user: Green Dragon
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Μπα, σήμερα βγήκα για καφέ για πρώτη φορά μετά από μήνες. Σε εντελώς ανοιχτή και αραιή καφετέρια βέβαια αλλά δεν αντέχω άλλο 100% απομόνωση. Συνεχίζω να προσέχω αλλά η παράνοια τέλος.GoBack έγραψε: 14 Οκτ 2020, 21:57 Μηπως ηθελε να πεις "πατε φουλ Σουηδια και οταν τελειωσετε θα βγω και εγω";![]()
Re: Εμβόλιο covid-19 Update
Μολις ανακαλυψα οτι αυτο το FDA εχει βαλει φρενο στο πουλεν μου,που το εχω διαλεξει απο την ανοιξη.Additional questions λεει,πιο στημενο και απο τη σουπερ λιγκα.
https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/inov ... al_1351845
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has placed a temporary hold on Inovio Pharmaceuticals’ mid-to-late stage coronavirus vaccine trial.
The company announced on Monday that the FDA had ‘additional questions’ about its planned phase 2/3 trial of its vaccine candidate INO-4800, as well as the delivery device to be used in the trial.
Inovio added that it is actively working to address the FDA’s questions and has plans to respond in October, at which point the agency will have up to 30 days to notify Inovio of its decision.
Importantly, the clinical hold is not due to the occurrence of any adverse events related to the vaccine, Inovio said in the statement. This means that the company’s ongoing phase 1 study of INO-4800 can continue and is not affected by the FDA hold.
Currently, Inovio has 15 DNA medicine clinical programmes in development focused on HPV-associated diseases, cancer and infectious diseases – including coronaviruses associated with MERS and COVID-19 diseases.
Inovio’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate is composed of optimised DNA plasmids, which are delivered directly into cells intramuscularly or intradermally using its proprietary hand-held CELLECTRA device.
The CELLECTRA device provides a brief electrical pulse to reversibly open small pores in the local skin area cells, which Inovio says increases product delivery by 'a hundred-fold’.
When the DNA plasmids are delivered, they instruct cells to produce the targeted antigen, which is then processed naturally and triggers specific T-cell and antibody-mediated immune responses.
Earlier this month, AstraZeneca’s global clinical development of its Oxford University-partnered COVID-19 vaccine candidate was placed on hold after a participant in the British trial fell ill with unexplained neurological symptoms.
Although trials have since restarted in the UK and other locations, the US-based study still remains on hold as regulators determine whether the side-effect was associated with the vaccine or not.
“Regulators in each individual country determine when trials can start and they do this in their own timeframe. Companies provide the information to the regulators to enable them to make this determination,” AstraZeneca said in a statement.
“On the current US status specifically, we are continuing to work with the FDA to facilitate a review of the information and the agency will decide when the US trial can resume,” the statement added.
https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/inov ... al_1351845
Philip Mortimer έγραψε: 14 Μαρ 2023, 22:40 Όσον αφορά το 2019 προσωπικά ψήφισα τον Μητσοτάκη γιατί πίστεψα στο όραμα μη πολιτικά χρωματισμένου εκσυγχρονισμού που παρουσίασε.
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