Μια σύνοψη από για εχθές και σήμερα από τον TOm Cooper
Summary for 01-02 March 22
Once again, the word is ‘not much Russian advances in Ukraine yesterday’. Well, let’s see…
Plenty of information is becoming available about the deployment of Russian Army units, and I’ll try to be more specific in this regards, too.
STRATEGIC
For the first time since the start of their invasion of Ukraine, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have officially acknowledged to have suffered a loss of 498 'killed in action' (KIA).
As far as is known by now, the Russian electronic warfare did not manage to disturb the GPS-coverage of Ukraine.
AIR
Since the VKS is 'mysteriously not involved' there is nothing to report....That's at least along Western 'experts'.
In reality, the Ukrainians claimed two S-35s during the night, both by their S-300s.
In turn, the UkAF appears to have lost a MiG-29 shot down in air combat.
One (operational) Ukrainian Su-27 was definitely destroyed on the ground, yesterday or the day before. I'm trying to find out where.
(Don't ask me for details: this is all I was able to find, otherwise I would post links and photos.)
NORTH
The Russian Armed Forces have deployed around 30,000 troops here, organised into the 35th Combined Arms Army, and the 36th Combined Arms Army.
Led by the 98th VDV Division, the 35th Is advancing west of Kyiv towards south. It began shelling Bila Tserkva, the last night. Think this is a good illustration for how far forward are its units.
That said, the Ukrainians hit its flank and smashed one of 35th CAA’s columns in Borodianka (see attached photo), about 20km NW of Kyiv. Was a smart action, but unless they do this 2-3 times a day, it’s simply far too little.
North-west of the 35th is the 36th, still blocked in a giant traffic jam now stretching for about 130km, from northern suburbs of Kyiv to the border with Belarus.
NORTH EAST
So much is going on from Chernihiv to Kharkiv, that this is certainly its own ‘front’. Thus, I’ll herewith treat it as such.
From west towards east (i.e. from Chernihiv to Kharkiv), the Russian Armed Forces have deployed about 45,000 troops, organised into the 41st Combined Arms Army, 2nd Combined Arms Army, 1st Guards Tanks Army, and 6th Combined Arms Army. The mass of these troops is messing around: they are pushed like hell by their officers, but running out of fuel, out of food, losing the way, running into ambushes, or abandoning vehicles without a fight.
Much of this is surprising and/or shocking for us to see, but ‘normal’ in a massive and rapid advance of this kind. That said, the only command here doing really good is that of the 1st Guards Tanks Army. This is controlling about 20 BTGs, which are now advancing on both sides of Sumy, have bypassed Rommy, and are pushing against the Ukrainian defence line between Nizhyn and Pryluky, about 70km east of Kyiv.
RUMINT has it that some of 1st GTA’s foremost units have punched through all the way into eastern approaches to Kyiv, or are at least approaching Brovary.
If so, this is a good indication that the Russians are 'only beginning' in serious fashion, at least restoring order within their forward units.
Kharkiv – which is surrounded for two days now, and probably held by an equivalent of three Ukrainian Army brigades and local volunteers – was exposed to a series of vicious artillery barrages, ballistic-missile attacks, and air strikes throughout the day yesterday. The Russians also heavily shelled the town of Chuhiv, nearby (air base and home-base of the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanised Brigade).
EAST
The Russian Armed Forces have ‘only’ about 12 BTGs deployed in the Donbas, but these are ‘reinforced’ by the Separatists – and they have punched from Luhansk through the LOC in the north-west and south, and are now coming forward. In the north, they are pushing for Hodivka (probably to continue for Kramatorsk); in the south, they have encircled Mariupol.
SOUTH
By now, I’m quite confident that the command of the Russian southern front is run by the – well-known – 58th Combined Arms Army. So far, this is also the most effective Russian command. I do not know about any details of its composition, except that it included at least one of Russian ‘Alpha Units’, early on (and that this suffered losses in the first assault on Kherson, back on 25 February, even if securing the bridgehead over the Dnepr). Another unit assigned to the 58th CAA is the 810th Independent Marine Brigade: a unit traditionally associated with the 58th. Back in 2015, it was the first Russian unit to get deployed in Syria, too.
Total strength of the 58th CAA these days: about 17,000, with additional to follow.
Western flank of the 58th has secured the city of Kherson yesterday, and is presently probing Mykolaiv while pushing its forward units further north-west. In the north, the 58th CAA launched its assault on Tokmak, and resumed its advance on Zaporozhye. In Energodar - the site of the largest nuclear plant in Europe - they've been stopped by unarmed local civilians who would not let them in. The latest reports are indicating that the Russians have opened fire....
In the east it completed the encirclement of Mariupol, yesterday afternoon. With this, we probably have the second significant ‘pocket’ of besieged Ukrainian armed forces, probably including an equivalent of three brigades (between them some of the Azov Battalion).
https://www.facebook.com/keksifarm.hayday
